Analyzing the Impact of Age Structure on Economic Growth in Selected South Asian Countries from 2000 to 2023

Abstract

 Economic growth is one of the most important indicators of sustainable development in developing countries, particularly in the South Asian region. This study investigates the impact of population age structure on economic growth in selected South Asian countries during the period 2000–2023. To analyze this relationship accurately and avoid multicollinearity among explanatory variables, panel econometric models are employed in two separate specifications. Findings from the first model reveal that variables such as the working-age population, youth population, elderly population, and savings rate have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth. In contrast, school enrollment and trade openness exhibit a negative and significant effect. The second model confirms the positive and significant influence of variables including the working-age population, middle-aged population, old-age dependency ratio, trade openness, and savings rate on economic growth. The positive effect of the old-age dependency ratio in some countries may be attributed to factors such as elderly investment, economic participation, technological advancement, labor migration, and increased government spending. However, the negative and significant effect of school enrollment persists, potentially reflecting inefficiencies in education and trade policies or the short-term economic costs of schooling. The findings suggest that to effectively harness the region’s demographic and economic potential, policymakers should focus on improving education quality, expanding job opportunities for youth, developing economic infrastructure, enhancing labor productivity, and reforming trade policies.